How to read an assessment

Each impact shows a direction and size, a plausible range, and a confidence meter. The assessment describes the pattern of impacts rather than reducing everything to a single score.

Confidence is not certainty

Confidence is how much to trust the estimate. It reflects the strength of the evidence and how directly the mechanism applies to this impact, and it is shown as the confidence meter from 0 to 100%.

Certainty is how precise the estimate is, which the app shows as the range on the interval bar. A narrow range is a more certain estimate, and a wide range is a less certain one.

The two are independent, so the app keeps them separate. You can be highly confident about a wide range when the direction is clear but the magnitude is not, and you can have a narrow-looking range built on weak evidence, which reads as precise but carries low confidence.